Europe's losses from sanctions against Russia

Real time

Key Factors

Main Beneficiaries

Estimated Losses

Financing opportunities

Sources

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and this number continues to increase

€2 500 000 000 000

This is how much Europe has lost from sanctions against Russia

€0

Estimating the EU's losses due to sanctions against Russia within a 1-hour timeframe is highly speculative, but we can provide a rough approximation based on available data.

The EU's trade with Russia dropped significantly after sanctions. In 2022, EU-Russia trade fell by ~€100 billion annually (~€273 million per day or ~€11.4 million per hour)

1

Trade Losses

Sanctions contributed to inflation, reducing EU GDP growth by ~0.5-1.5% in 2022-2023. Hourly losses are harder to quantify but could range in the millions per hour

3

Inflation & Economic Slowdown

Some EU firms exited Russia (e.g., €100+ billion in asset write-offs). Hourly impact: ~€1-2 million.

4

Business Relocations & Lost Investments

The EU spent an extra ~€1 trillion on energy imports (2022-2023) due to reduced Russian gas supplies. This averages ~€114 million per hour over two years.

2

Energy Costs

Key Factors to Consider

Direct trade losses

million

€10-15

Total (per hour)

million

€65-135

Energy cost inflation

million

€50-100

Indirect economic drag

million

€5-20

Very Rough Estimate for 1 Hour

Equivalent of the EU’s Hourly Losses Due to Sanctions Against Russia

Based on our previous estimate of €65–135 million per hour, here’s what that could buy or represent

Healthcare: ~1 hour ≈ 1,300–2,700 annual salaries for nurses (€50k/year)

Renewable Energy: ~3 hours ≈ a small solar farm (50 MW, ~€40M)

Infrastructure: ~6 hours ≈ 10 km of high-speed rail (€500M per 100 km)

LNG & Oil Exports: Replaced Russian gas, with US LNG sales to Europe quadrupling (€50+ billion/year).

1

United States (Biggest Winner)

Weapons Sales: EU defense spending surged, benefiting US arms manufacturers (e.g., F-35 jets, Patriot missiles).

Financial & Tech Dominance: US firms (Google, Apple, Exxon) filled gaps left by EU-Russia trade.

Pivot to Asia: Redirected 80% of oil exports to China/India.

2

Russia Itself (Partial Adaptation)

Military-Industrial Growth: Sanctions forced self-reliance in arms production

Ruble Stabilization: Initially crashed but recovered due to capital controls & energy sales

Oil Arbitrage: Buy discounted Russian crude, refine it, and sell at market price to Europe

3

India & Türkiye

Trade Middlemen: Act as sanctions-busting hubs for EU-Russia trade (e.g., Turkish exports to Russia up 85%

Cheap Russian Energy: China buys Russian oil/gas at ~30% discount, saving billions

4

China

Trade Expansion: Became Russia’s top supplier of cars, electronics, and machinery (replacing EU brands).

Geopolitical Leverage: Gains influence in Central Asia and Moscow

Main Beneficiaries of EU Sanctions Against Russia

While the EU suffers economic losses, other countries and entities benefit

EU exports to Russia fell by ~€50 billion/year (now ~50% of pre-war levels)

Trade Losses

Lost imports (cheap energy, raw materials) cost another €100+ billion/year

Total trade loss (2022–2024): ~€400–500 billion

Replacing Russian gas/oil cost the EU ~€1 trillion in extra energy spending (2022–2023)

Energy Crisis Costs

Germany alone spent €100 billion just on emergency gas purchases

EU companies lost €200+ billion in stranded assets, exits from Russia (e.g., Shell, BP, Renault)

Business Losses

Total Estimated Losses (2022–2025) (Equivalent to ~5–7% of EU GDP over 3 years.)

trillion

~€2–2.5

EU exports to Russia fell by ~€50 billion/year (now ~50% of pre-war levels)

Economic Slowdown & Inflation

Inflation peaked at 10.6% in 2022, reducing consumer spending power

Estimated Total EU Losses from Sanctions Against Russia (2022–2025)

Since the start of sanctions in 2022, the EU has suffered direct and indirect losses in trade, energy, inflation, and investment. While exact figures vary, key estimates include:

What Could the EU Have Built with This Money?

2.5 trillion could fund:

500,000 wind turbines (~€5M each) → 100% EU green electricity

1. Energy Independence

1,000 nuclear reactors (~€2.5B each) → replace all Russian gas forever

Solar panels for every home in Europe (~€10k/household)